Microvast, traded on the NASDAQ, is a global company developing high-performance lithium battery systems for electric vehicles and energy storage. With operations spanning the USA, China, and Europe, Microvast is working on cutting-edge technology, including all-solid-state batteries that could shape the future of energy. In this article, we take a simple look at how Microvast’s revenue has grown from Q1 2020 to Q1 2025, using clear charts and visuals anyone can understand. In the much anticipated run up to the Q2 2025 earnings, can the past data and trends be used to give us an idea of how Microvast will perform?
In our previous article, we focused on speculation around Microvast’s potential involvement in government defence contracts and mergers. This time, we’re taking a different approach and looking at something more concrete — the revenue figures the company has posted over the last five years. After doing some basic analysis and putting the numbers into a few simple graphs, I found some interesting trends.
The data table and graph below show Microvast’s revenue from Q1 2020 to Q1 2025, and not only does it show solid growth, it also highlights some patterns that investors may want to pay attention to.
What are the Trends?
The figures shows that Q1 has consistently been the worst performing quarter of the year and Q4 the best. Excluding Q3 2023, the ranking per year has been in reverse order with each quarter outperforming the last. With that in mind, the fact that in Q1 2025 Microvast set recorded quarterly revenue of $116.49 million is even more impressive. If the trend repeats and Q1 2025 was the worst quarter of the year, then Microvast would be more than on track to meat their 2025 annual revenue target of $450 million, which was emphasised in the Q1 2025 earnings call. It is worth noting that the Q1 and Q2 trend lines look set to intercept following only 3% revenue growth in Q2 2024. To further analyse the quarterly trends I calculated the percentage that each quarters revenue was of the total annual turnover.
The table above shows a familiar trend, with Q1 revenues make up the smallest percentage of annual turnover and Q4 making up the largest. What stands out most is the Q1 2025 figure shown in blue. Since we don’t yet know the full year’s total, I compared it to the company’s $450 million target. It revealed that Q1 alone accounts for 25.9% of that target, which on its own looks pretty healthy. But remember, Q1 is usually the weakest quarter of the year. That flips the narrative and Instead of wondering if Microvast can meet the targets, I wanted to estimate how much they may beat them by.
Speculation on Microvasts 2025 Revenue
If we use the Q1 2024 share of annual revenue (21.4%) and apply that same ratio to Q1 2025’s figure of $116.49 million, we end up with a rough projection of $544 million for the year. That would beat the target by more than $90 million (20%). In my opinion this is an unrealistic but is certainly an interesting figure to see. The reason for this is due to the quarterly revenue moving year on year towards being more evenly spread over the four quarters. A scenario more in line with this trend might assume Q1 makes up 23.5% of the annual total, with the subsequent quarters each contributing an additional 1% of the annual revenue on the last. That would take the full year to about $495 million, which is still an impressive $45 million (10%) over budget. However, this does not consider that Q2 2025 has arguably been one of the most unpredictable ones in recent years. We have seen both President Trump tariffs cause uncertainty amongst global markets as well as the Israel-Iran conflict causing large fluctuations in oil prices. These factors could have impacted sales but you could argue that Microvast is well positioned to be insulated against the ongoing trade war. This is primarily due to having a customers based mostly outside of the US with its manufacturing processes taking place in China and Europe. Time will tell if these external factors were enough to tip the scales for Q2 2025 and see it underperform compared to Q1 2025 for the first time.
Another speculation is that the Q1 result were an anomaly. To illustrate this I have included a table below showing the quarter on quarter revenue change since Q2 2020.
Q1 usually sees a decrease in revenue compared to Q4 of the previous year. That has been true almost every year, except for in 2025. Not only did it avoid a drop, it actually grew slightly – up by around 3% from Q4 2024. This might not sound huge at first, but it’s a big shift compared to Q1 2024 which saw a 22% drop from the final quarter of 2023. However, it should be noted that this trend appears to be weakening, with figures showing an average reduction of revenue drop off of around 15% annually from 2021 onwards. Applying this to the Q1 2025 would have had us expecting a revenue decrease of 7% from Q4 2024 in comparison to its gain of 3%.
The conclusion may not be what some people want to see, but the truth is that past results can’t determine how the company performs in the future. So any speculations you have from the trends highlighted should remain just that. For full transparency this article was written by an individual with a financial interest in the mentioned company, so this blog should be considered biased. If there is anything you would like to share or contribute on this topic feel free to join our free Reddit or Discord communities here.